Hi all,
I’m currently using GCAM v7.1 with default settings to simulate regional emissions under SSP-RCP scenarios. While analyzing the results, I encountered something that seems counterintuitive and would appreciate your insights.
Description of the issue
For the EU region (EU12 + EU15), I find that emissions reach net zero relatively late—even under an ambitious scenario like SSP1-RCP2.6. Based on my results (see attached figure), the region does not achieve net-zero emissions until quite late in the century.
When breaking down emissions by sector, I observe that several sectors still have non-negligible emissions even by 2100, particularly:
refining
trn_freight_road
trn_pass_road_LDV_4W
This does not align well with my expectations for such a stringent mitigation scenario.
Methodology
My emissions accounting is as follows:
Indicator: CO₂ emissions
Source: co2 emissions by region
Total emissions calculated as:
Total = co2 emissions by region + LUC emissions by region
Questions
Has anyone encountered similar results when running SSP1-RCP2.6 (or similar scenarios) in GCAM?
Could this be due to:
a misunderstanding of the emissions accounting method?
a modeling setup issue?
If this behavior is expected:
what are the underlying reasons?
are there specific assumptions in GCAM’s scenario design (e.g., residual emissions in transport or refining sectors) that explain this?
Are there known limitations or structural features in GCAM that prevent certain sectors from fully decarbonizing by 2100?
Any clarification or pointers would be greatly appreciated!
Thanks in advance.
Hi all,
I’m currently using GCAM v7.1 with default settings to simulate regional emissions under SSP-RCP scenarios. While analyzing the results, I encountered something that seems counterintuitive and would appreciate your insights.
Description of the issue
For the EU region (EU12 + EU15), I find that emissions reach net zero relatively late—even under an ambitious scenario like SSP1-RCP2.6. Based on my results (see attached figure), the region does not achieve net-zero emissions until quite late in the century.
When breaking down emissions by sector, I observe that several sectors still have non-negligible emissions even by 2100, particularly:
refining
trn_freight_road
trn_pass_road_LDV_4W
This does not align well with my expectations for such a stringent mitigation scenario.
Methodology
My emissions accounting is as follows:
Indicator: CO₂ emissions
Source: co2 emissions by region
Total emissions calculated as:
Total = co2 emissions by region + LUC emissions by region
Questions
Has anyone encountered similar results when running SSP1-RCP2.6 (or similar scenarios) in GCAM?
Could this be due to:
a misunderstanding of the emissions accounting method?
a modeling setup issue?
If this behavior is expected:
what are the underlying reasons?
are there specific assumptions in GCAM’s scenario design (e.g., residual emissions in transport or refining sectors) that explain this?
Are there known limitations or structural features in GCAM that prevent certain sectors from fully decarbonizing by 2100?
Any clarification or pointers would be greatly appreciated!
Thanks in advance.