PSLmodels · martinholmer · Mar 16, 2026 · Mar 15, 2026 · Mar 15, 2026 · Mar 15, 2026
diff --git a/tests/expected_tax_exp_2022_data b/tests/expected_tax_exp_2022_data
@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 paytax 1421.4
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 iitax 2201.0
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 ctc 117.7
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 eitc 71.4
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 paytax 1429.6
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 iitax 2339.4
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 ctc 117.9
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 eitc 70.7
 YR,KIND,EST= 2023 social_security_partial_taxability 46.8
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 niit -43.5
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 cgqd_tax_preference 167.8
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 qbid 56.4
-YR,KIND,EST= 2023 salt 21.0
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 niit -47.1
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 cgqd_tax_preference 180.1
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 qbid 55.2
+YR,KIND,EST= 2023 salt 21.8
diff --git a/tests/test_imputed_variables.py b/tests/test_imputed_variables.py
@@ -55,9 +55,9 @@ def actual_results(rdf, bdf):
             # https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/
             #         budget-laws-tax-cuts-overtime-and-
             #         tips-are-popular-few-will-benefit
-            "exp_totben_2022": 24.38,
+            "exp_totben_2022": 24.26,
             "exp_affpct_2022": 8.77,
-            "exp_affben_2022": 1399,
+            "exp_affben_2022": 1403,
         },
         "TIP": {  # new OBBBA tip income deduction
             "reform_dict": {"TipIncomeDed_c": {simyear: 0}},
@@ -72,8 +72,8 @@ def actual_results(rdf, bdf):
             # https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/
             #         budget-laws-tax-cuts-overtime-and-
             #         tips-are-popular-few-will-benefit
-            "exp_totben_2022": 7.39,
-            "exp_affpct_2022": 2.64,
+            "exp_totben_2022": 7.24,
+            "exp_affpct_2022": 2.61,
             "exp_affben_2022": 1409,
         },
         "ALI": {  # new OBBBA auto loan interest deduction
@@ -87,9 +87,9 @@ def actual_results(rdf, bdf):
             # because the Tax Policy Center did not provide any
             # statistics for this new deduction.  However, see the
             # following reform analysis for FOUR reforms.
-            "exp_totben_2022": 8.82,
-            "exp_affpct_2022": 12.66,
-            "exp_affben_2022": 350,
+            "exp_totben_2022": 7.75,
+            "exp_affpct_2022": 12.15,
+            "exp_affben_2022": 324,
         },
         "ALL": {  # above three deductions plus new OBBBA senior deduction
             "reform_dict": {
@@ -107,9 +107,9 @@ def actual_results(rdf, bdf):
             # https://taxpolicycenter.org/model-estimates/T25-0257
             # Note that the $1081 TPC estimate is derived by dividing
             # the all-unit average of $320 by the 0.296 affpct.
-            "exp_totben_2022": 63.35,
-            "exp_affpct_2022": 29.08,
-            "exp_affben_2022": 1095,
+            "exp_totben_2022": 61.82,
+            "exp_affpct_2022": 28.86,
+            "exp_affben_2022": 1087,
         },
     }
     output_variables = [

diff --git a/tmd/areas/create_area_weights.py b/tmd/areas/create_area_weights.py
@@ -21,13 +21,13 @@
 import jax.numpy as jnp
 from jax.experimental.sparse import BCOO
 from tmd.storage import STORAGE_FOLDER
-from tmd.imputation_assumptions import TAXYEAR
+from tmd.imputation_assumptions import TAXYEAR, POPULATION_FILE
 from tmd.areas import AREAS_FOLDER
 
 FIRST_YEAR = TAXYEAR
 LAST_YEAR = 2034
 INFILE_PATH = STORAGE_FOLDER / "output" / "tmd.csv.gz"
-POPFILE_PATH = STORAGE_FOLDER / "input" / "cbo_population_forecast.yaml"
+POPFILE_PATH = STORAGE_FOLDER / "input" / POPULATION_FILE
 
 # Tax-Calcultor calculated variable cache files:
 TAXCALC_AGI_CACHE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "output" / "cached_c00100.npy"

diff --git a/tmd/areas/make_all.py b/tmd/areas/make_all.py
@@ -14,13 +14,14 @@
 )
 from tmd.areas import AREAS_FOLDER
 from tmd.storage import STORAGE_FOLDER
+from tmd.imputation_assumptions import POPULATION_FILE
 
 OTHER_DEPENDENCIES = [
     AREAS_FOLDER / "create_area_weights.py",
     STORAGE_FOLDER / "output" / "tmd.csv.gz",
     STORAGE_FOLDER / "output" / "tmd_weights.csv.gz",
     STORAGE_FOLDER / "output" / "tmd_growfactors.csv",
-    STORAGE_FOLDER / "input" / "cbo_population_forecast.yaml",
+    STORAGE_FOLDER / "input" / POPULATION_FILE,
     # Tax-Calculator is a dependency, so do "make tmd_files" when upgrading T-C
 ]
 

diff --git a/tmd/create_taxcalc_growth_factors.py b/tmd/create_taxcalc_growth_factors.py
@@ -19,17 +19,20 @@
 ASOCSEC_INDEX = 14
 AUCOMP_INDEX = 15
 
-
-PGFFILE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "input" / "puf_growfactors.csv"
-TGFFILE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "output" / "tmd_growfactors.csv"
+INPUT_FILE = {
+    2021: "taxdata25_growfactors.csv",
+    2022: "taxdata26_growfactors.csv",
+}
+INFILE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "input" / INPUT_FILE[TAXYEAR]
+OUTFILE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "output" / "tmd_growfactors.csv"
 
 
 def create_factors_file():
     """
     Create Tax-Calculator-style factors file for FIRST_YEAR through LAST_YEAR.
     """
-    # read PUF-factors from PGFFILE
-    gfdf = pd.read_csv(PGFFILE)
+    # read PUF-factors from INFILE
+    gfdf = pd.read_csv(INFILE)
     first_puf_year = gfdf.YEAR.iat[0]
     last_puf_year = gfdf.YEAR.iat[-1]
 
@@ -88,7 +91,7 @@ def create_factors_file():
 
     # write gfdf to CSV-formatted file
     gfdf.YEAR = gfdf.YEAR.astype(int)
-    gfdf.to_csv(TGFFILE, index=False, float_format="%.6f")
+    gfdf.to_csv(OUTFILE, index=False, float_format="%.6f")
 
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":

diff --git a/tmd/create_taxcalc_sampling_weights.py b/tmd/create_taxcalc_sampling_weights.py
@@ -7,12 +7,12 @@
 import yaml
 import pandas as pd
 from tmd.storage import STORAGE_FOLDER
-from tmd.imputation_assumptions import TAXYEAR
+from tmd.imputation_assumptions import TAXYEAR, POPULATION_FILE
 
 FIRST_YEAR = TAXYEAR
 LAST_YEAR = TAXYEAR + 53
 VARFILE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "output" / "tmd.csv.gz"
-POPFILE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "input" / "cbo_population_forecast.yaml"
+POPFILE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "input" / POPULATION_FILE
 WGTFILE = STORAGE_FOLDER / "output" / "tmd_weights.csv.gz"
 
 

diff --git a/tmd/imputation_assumptions.py b/tmd/imputation_assumptions.py
@@ -1,16 +1,15 @@
 """
-Central location for data imputation assumptions.
+Central location for assumptions about data generation and data imputation.
 """
 
 TAXYEAR = 2022  # single source of truth for the target tax year
 
 IMPUTATION_RF_RNG_SEED = 1928374  # random number seed used by RandomForest
-
 IMPUTATION_BETA_RNG_SEED = 37465  # random number seed used for Beta variates
 
 W2_WAGES_RATIO = {  # parameter used to impute pass-through W-2 wages
     2021: 0.15,
-    2022: 0.17,
+    2022: 0.15,
 }
 
 # RNG seeds used for demographic decoding and earnings splits in puf.py:
@@ -20,7 +19,7 @@
 EARN_SPLIT_RNG_SEED = 18374659
 
 ITMDED_GROW_RATE = 0.02  # annual growth rate in itemized deduction amounts
-# grow rate applied to inflate 2015 amounts to 2021 amounts in uprate_puf.py
+# grow rate applied to inflate 2015 amounts to 2021+ amounts in uprate_puf.py
 
 # parameters used to identify CPS nonfilers:
 FILER_MIN_INCOME = {
@@ -52,11 +51,18 @@
 
 # parameters for MICE imputation of missing OBBBA deduction variables:
 # ... overtime_income:
-OTM_convert_zero_prob = {2021: 0.077, 2022: 0.077}
-OTM_scale = {2021: 2.4, 2022: 2.4}
+OTM_convert_zero_prob = {2021: 0.077, 2022: 0.079}
+OTM_scale = {2021: 2.4, 2022: 2.3}
 # ... tip_income:
 TIP_convert_zero_prob = {2021: 0.014, 2022: 0.014}
 TIP_scale = {2021: 1.0, 2022: 1.0}
 # ... auto_loan_interest:
 ALI_convert_zero_prob = {2021: 0.060, 2022: 0.060}
 ALI_scale = {2021: 4.0, 2022: 4.0}
+
+# population projection file used to extrapolate TAXYEAR sampling weights
+POP_FILE = {
+    2021: "cbo25_population_forecast.yaml",
+    2022: "cbo26_population_forecast.yaml",
+}
+POPULATION_FILE = POP_FILE[TAXYEAR]
diff --git a/...torage/input/cbo_population_forecast.yaml → ...rage/input/cbo25_population_forecast.yaml b/...torage/input/cbo_population_forecast.yaml → ...rage/input/cbo25_population_forecast.yaml
@@ -70,4 +70,3 @@
 2072: 395.984
 2073: 396.650
 2074: 397.286
-2075: 397.923  # assumed to be equal to 397.286 * (397.286 / 396.650)
diff --git a/tmd/storage/input/cbo26_population_forecast.yaml b/tmd/storage/input/cbo26_population_forecast.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+# SOURCE:
+# CBO, "The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056" (January 2026).
+# URL: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879
+# - Data Underlying Figures, Figure 2 spreadsheet tab,
+#     Total Population (millions) [for years from 2026 through 2075]
+# - Demographic Projections, Population and growth spreadsheet tab,
+#     Total Social Security area population (millions) [for years before 2026]
+2010: 313.988
+2011: 316.290
+2012: 318.428
+2013: 320.473
+2014: 322.613
+2015: 325.590
+2016: 328.395
+2017: 330.549
+2018: 332.731
+2019: 334.380
+2020: 335.643
+2021: 336.687
+2022: 338.078
+2023: 341.550
+2024: 345.440
+2025: 348.156
+2026: 348.955
+2027: 349.838
+2028: 350.742
+2029: 351.705
+2030: 352.726
+2031: 353.786
+2032: 354.767
+2033: 355.671
+2034: 356.513
+2035: 357.311
+2036: 358.084
+2037: 358.845
+2038: 359.546
+2039: 360.191
+2040: 360.778
+2041: 361.310
+2042: 361.787
+2043: 362.210
+2044: 362.580
+2045: 362.900
+2046: 363.174
+2047: 363.405
+2048: 363.593
+2049: 363.744
+2050: 363.860
+2051: 363.947
+2052: 364.009
+2053: 364.051
+2054: 364.076
+2055: 364.090
+2056: 364.094
+2057: 364.093
+2058: 364.088
+2059: 364.082
+2060: 364.075
+2061: 364.064
+2062: 364.050
+2063: 364.033
+2064: 364.009
+2065: 363.978
+2066: 363.934
+2067: 363.876
+2068: 363.802
+2069: 363.708
+2070: 363.592
+2071: 363.450
+2072: 363.279
+2073: 363.077
+2074: 362.843
+2075: 362.577
diff --git a/tmd/storage/input/puf_growfactors.csv → tmd/storage/input/taxdata25_growfactors.csv b/tmd/storage/input/puf_growfactors.csv → tmd/storage/input/taxdata25_growfactors.csv
diff --git a/tmd/storage/input/taxdata26_growfactors.csv b/tmd/storage/input/taxdata26_growfactors.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+YEAR,ATXPY,ASCHF,ABOOK,ACPIU,ACPIM,AWAGE,ASCHCI,ASCHCL,ASCHEI,ASCHEL,AINTS,ADIVS,ACGNS,ASOCSEC,AUCOMP,AIPD,ABENOTHER,ABENMCARE,ABENMCAID,ABENSSI,ABENSNAP,ABENWIC,ABENHOUSING,ABENTANF,ABENVET
+2011,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+2012,1.043862,0.950283,1.104992,1.0209,1.0367,1.032649,1.049023,0.956138,1.165922,0.926962,0.923588,1.327776,1.58966,1.02827,0.7711,0.9231,0.992359,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+2013,1.012518,1.142179,1.033784,1.014791,1.024597,1.019984,0.99505,1.050098,0.997245,1.013128,0.893658,0.819381,0.776217,1.014786,0.728829,0.896219,0.992515,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+2014,1.029476,0.931683,0.976566,1.015927,1.024007,1.039999,1.040616,1.030349,1.075978,0.991321,0.925886,1.17606,1.387522,1.004801,0.641103,0.970506,0.99257,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+2015,1.043858,0.508206,0.999544,1.001235,1.026386,1.024119,1.038052,1.040061,1.04481,1.057257,1.013311,1.013846,1.004308,1.017188,0.81793,0.988666,1.053858,1.023325,1.041528,1.019361,1.102667,1.007792,1.026748,1.132657,1.04693
+2016,1.021978,1.071198,0.984833,1.012621,1.03789,1.006659,0.984484,1.005593,0.982695,0.983807,0.999649,0.968237,0.881651,0.991403,0.933831,1.001764,1.097065,1.011695,1.010367,0.993375,0.989722,1.002577,1.01625,0.828168,1.105413
+2017,1.049373,0.907035,1.018491,1.021273,1.025028,1.040577,1.060677,1.132498,1.093477,1.160123,1.088642,1.102389,1.344721,1.00723,0.94186,1.029301,1.011911,1.030968,1.014601,0.981621,1.0,0.998715,1.063959,1.0,1.0
+2018,1.042394,0.976786,1.074059,1.0245,1.019702,1.041821,1.042769,1.042713,1.074048,1.074033,1.031272,1.076804,1.074755,1.018778,0.92284,1.050825,1.103035,1.045097,1.045897,1.005738,1.0,1.002574,1.034828,1.0,1.0
+2019,1.032351,0.979401,1.019085,1.017913,1.028321,1.039292,1.004274,1.004387,1.019131,1.019122,1.014806,1.041751,0.925878,1.031182,0.940635,1.040577,1.054052,1.052158,1.045866,1.000751,1.0,1.002567,1.034809,1.0,1.0
+2020,1.067957,1.167938,0.947032,1.012495,1.041111,1.006381,1.016054,1.015991,0.947016,0.94708,0.989319,1.091767,1.292516,1.023383,1.034222,1.076313,0.996727,1.050763,1.046106,1.00255,1.0,1.003841,1.034974,1.0,1.0
+2021,1.071132,1.587189,1.283298,1.047189,1.01234,1.08209,1.041336,1.041335,1.283277,1.283185,0.912943,1.164429,1.792117,1.011965,8.619252,1.079518,1.03007,1.047248,1.047927,1.001796,1.0,1.002551,1.034869,1.0,1.0
+2022,1.012519,1.122753,1.126169,1.079668,1.04053,1.069673,1.011446,1.011444,1.126174,1.126257,1.065769,1.053916,0.614105,1.047964,0.152665,1.020194,1.030159,1.048769,1.047573,0.999851,1.0,1.002545,1.034942,1.0,1.0
+2023,1.071685,0.866302,1.082346,1.041353,1.004613,1.047498,1.08617,1.08622,1.082383,1.082323,1.115812,1.180977,0.755346,1.086103,0.748857,1.079838,1.030193,1.050822,1.048715,1.000448,1.0,1.003807,1.034968,1.0,1.0
+2024,1.048148,0.804922,1.043234,1.029525,1.026747,1.048019,1.042794,1.042768,1.043195,1.043207,1.04517,1.025545,1.3078,1.053819,1.257741,1.056041,1.030334,1.048426,1.051767,0.99776,1.0,1.002528,1.034951,1.0,1.0
+2025,1.041816,1.332261,1.042489,1.027674,1.031019,1.041912,1.033534,1.0335,1.042495,1.042459,1.04848,1.020951,1.262058,1.050753,1.150139,1.049347,1.030635,1.046248,1.052213,1.002245,1.0,1.003783,1.034897,1.0,1.0
+2026,1.040067,0.92138,1.041261,1.029301,1.032702,1.034974,1.04156,1.041597,1.041261,1.041273,1.104211,1.056798,1.03124,1.034979,1.092855,1.047499,1.030633,1.072236,1.0,0.999552,1.0,1.002513,1.034808,1.0,1.0
+2027,1.036538,0.958592,0.994087,1.025417,1.029,1.035776,1.041189,1.041154,0.994107,0.994125,1.070594,0.993921,0.957494,1.031636,1.062345,1.043841,1.030788,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.002506,1.034863,1.0,1.0
+2028,1.035494,0.970307,0.993447,1.023663,1.030774,1.034248,1.039941,1.039927,0.993419,0.993402,1.086673,0.992658,0.940374,1.034233,1.025967,1.042648,1.030942,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+2029,1.033595,0.980131,1.000166,1.022858,1.030924,1.033076,1.039067,1.039111,1.000186,1.000222,1.075786,0.991511,0.975699,1.033447,1.01468,1.040489,1.031131,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+2030,1.033898,0.989135,1.017738,1.022663,1.031094,1.032667,1.038678,1.03866,1.017736,1.017715,1.054557,1.01322,0.998445,1.033943,1.012472,1.04064,1.03133,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+2031,1.03494,0.995169,1.028526,1.022531,1.030984,1.032004,1.037806,1.0378,1.028513,1.028538,1.051646,1.028241,1.012539,1.036568,1.026608,1.041542,1.03151,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0
+2032,1.035457,0.999777,1.034817,1.022578,1.031257,1.031167,1.036369,1.036352,1.03482,1.034796,1.048854,1.036945,1.020192,1.036387,1.029998,1.041845,1.031644,,,,,,,,
+2033,1.035087,1.0014,1.036083,1.022611,1.030977,1.030948,1.035302,1.035308,1.036065,1.03609,1.041747,1.040731,1.024714,1.035312,1.02726,1.041341,1.031857,,,,,,,,
+2034,1.035075,1.003101,1.037118,1.022572,1.031017,1.030992,1.034961,1.034963,1.037148,1.037113,1.04445,1.041905,1.027937,1.033459,1.028351,1.041055,1.032059,,,,,,,,
+2035,1.034658,1.005994,1.037998,1.022526,1.030974,1.031065,1.034724,1.034714,1.037993,1.038018,1.037198,1.042629,1.029854,1.031715,1.027569,1.040521,1.032203,,,,,,,,
+2036,1.034438,1.005976,1.037274,1.022582,1.031058,1.031309,1.034389,1.034408,1.037258,1.037253,1.034837,1.041391,1.030058,1.033301,1.028547,1.040194,1.032293,,,,,,,,