PSLmodels · jdebacker · Mar 25, 2026 · Mar 13, 2026 · Mar 13, 2026 · Mar 16, 2026
diff --git a/cps_stage1/stage1.py b/cps_stage1/stage1.py
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
 
 def main(syr=2014):
     SYR = str(syr)  # Start year of CPS
-    EYR = 2035  # Last year in our extrapolation
+    EYR = 2036  # Last year in our extrapolation
 
     # Read in state SOI estimates
     soi_estimates = pd.read_csv(

diff --git a/cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv b/cps_stage1/stage_2_targets.csv
@@ -1,24 +1,24 @@
-,2014,2015,2016,2017,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035
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-Joint,55128595,57272012,57201828,57987204,57069122,56986429,57984256,58893878,59687730,60393376,61104535,61788129,62482750,63182883,63888529,64605200,65327385,66060595,66799319,67543555,68304329,69065104,69842417,70619730,71413582
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-Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,846471849,889515039,925594384,996293984,1069779122,1093456192,1161502899,1239696921,1300647139,1361928969,1422348608,1487543454,1553932103,1620785008,1687770557,1757210033,1828705500,1903251795,1981578462
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-UCOMP,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,9810238,9161105,8628482,7962704,7490002,7746327,66767543,10193061,7633144,8711705,11041927,12180408,12736332,13235666,13651777,14094519,14567222,15036595,15482666,15925409,16398111
-wage1,114320683,112017897,111270085,107376379,132211870,134189618,140763057,147839507,154870229,157088051,170920853,185370987,194653827,206234512,216317596,226274928,235820705,245778036,255872553,266024229,276415979,287104963,298011156,309351768,321081070
-wage2,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,302997965,307530489,322595239,338812769,354925502,360008217,391709690,424825940,446099986,472640145,495748161,518567982,540444619,563264439,586398655,609663868,633479272,657975865,682970250,708960218,735840971
-wage3,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,440926749,447522541,469444969,493044939,516492406,523888842,570021256,618212472,649170753,687792353,721419451,754627164,786462342,819670055,853335279,887191133,921847633,957495407,993867575,1031688529,1070805766
-wage4,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,484073517,491314738,515382379,541291719,567033631,575153844,625800532,678707487,712695182,755096088,792013757,828471001,863421402,899878647,936838172,974006982,1012054784,1051190862,1091122218,1132644131,1175589175
-wage5,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,483856372,491094344,515151189,541048906,566779271,574895841,625519811,678403032,712375481,754757367,791658475,828099366,863034089,899474979,936417926,973570062,1011600796,1050719319,1090632762,1132136050,1175061829
-wage6,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1060069801,1075927308,1128632897,1185371609,1241743674,1259526081,1370436973,1486297606,1560727064,1653580562,1734426353,1814263862,1890801543,1970639053,2051576505,2132972266,2216292928,2301996798,2389442245,2480370844,2574415946
-wage7,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,972132275,986674331,1035007756,1087039738,1138735488,1155042766,1256753103,1363002580,1431257781,1516408667,1590547938,1663762569,1733951108,1807165739,1881389068,1956032687,2032441528,2111035879,2191227335,2274613001,2360856642
-wage8,3433224075,3714896131,3792750634,4090211841,3970523643,4029918419,4227328804,4439845374,4650988654,4717593201,5133013315,5566972838,5845750633,6193536231,6496346595,6795380412,7082054622,7381088439,7684242125,7989112423,8301192491,8622198942,8949728519,9290304347,9642553137
+,2014,2015,2016,2017,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031,2032,2033,2034,2035,2036
+Single,69579590,71086947,71410690,73021932,72028792,71924422,73183813,74331876,75333822,76224441,77122018,77984804,78861507,79745168,80635787,81540322,82451814,83377223,84309589,85248914,86209112,87169310,88150383,89131455,90133401,91142305
+Joint,55128595,57272012,57201828,57987204,57069122,56986429,57984256,58893878,59687730,60393376,61104535,61788129,62482750,63182883,63888529,64605200,65327385,66060595,66799319,67543555,68304329,69065104,69842417,70619730,71413582,72212947
+HH,22077498,22134303,21659639,21894095,22854626,22821510,23221112,23585391,23903307,24185899,24470699,24744460,25022636,25303020,25585612,25872620,26161835,26455466,26751304,27049351,27354020,27658689,27969982,28281275,28599191,28919315
+SS_return,27401498,28087514,28329015,28967603,31684352,32736570,33818929,34953351,36139836,37386604,38614191,39891101,41154310,42384637,43664287,44875433,46007115,47097695,48141692,49089784,49843325,50509181,51128455,51758690,52484829,53139725
+Dep_return,96916673,96505181,94809260,94708629,99911398,100735190,101549290,102373082,103187182,104001282,104805690,105610099,106414507,107209224,107984557,108759890,109525532,110281482,111018049,111744924,112452416,113150216,113828632,114487666,115137008,115776658
+INTS,156367939,95881223,96640233,106055367,124828526,125813644,138072890,143545768,146829495,146407301,134695343,144655980,162638293,171254167,180855158,201136080,216851058,237272711,256959434,272752596,288655215,304636019,319256421,335377956,349826353,364024562
+DIVS,254702232,260252720,254065327,282336042,340613295,332513764,369521998,401130545,421201081,463481652,543865676,577588252,687313973,710135293,730256769,777274801,777987968,777605914,776154112,791563597,819071438,854602399,894743471,937635327,983150616,1029531892
+SCHCI,374659000,391975736,389078638,416010104,435503622,432281554,462216808,485895257,491852335,503691560,528568917,538722176,589600868,619423725,644825605,676446824,709266953,742686536,776855436,812185780,848227976,884532433,921249015,958977176,997904246,1037955294
+SCHCL,57400238,60161435,60996610,69637956,63668344,64552308,73696166,77467361,78425945,80308673,84275029,85893716,94010110,98762850,102809566,107855047,113084209,118410951,123863974,129494937,135240701,141026645,146881469,152897014,159101980,165490626
+CGNS,705007630,713598090,634341278,859894631,1249696525,1110880523,1505896298,1631599158,1522675479,1983609468,3582355270,2216825992,1687224260,2223030059,2825882083,2935087765,2830112129,2679734002,2632075486,2645188628,2695314670,2766802444,2852178868,2948835414,3054093053,3163369236
+Pension,663223262,689991999,693626543,729187412,776568117,800178866,846471849,889515039,925594384,996293984,1075416519,1097236565,1184848358,1251170684,1312916769,1375326078,1435613073,1496828580,1557447186,1620785008,1688035846,1758735446,1831358393,1906567911,1983833421,2063552857
+SCHEI,846331543,891134646,882933054,973306129,1140431754,1129937243,1245546132,1348629314,1385360103,1322308403,1710012883,1940553595,2116421290,2224328561,2335621159,2449452752,2452161013,2452838078,2469680076,2529938881,2618549794,2726541699,2841812055,2964445496,3094526654,3227654606
+SCHEL,166947674,177896945,176446339,206369393,169401805,168032834,196514107,212774811,218567895,208634508,269787441,306182034,333912043,350940706,368486906,386450476,386884540,386984708,389655871,399155194,413145409,430174072,448371368,467703909,488238473,509240490
+SS,575126918,605152093,619856114,644989570,709246515,726500323,755946821,795975655,848657280,898463271,939067232,1016651853,1139153886,1236350336,1338320338,1423554147,1505624759,1594079279,1683914103,1775359283,1868529844,1962390557,2056596346,2151607313,2250989244,2354972191
+UCOMP,33288898,27225383,25420264,23946035,9810238,9161105,8628482,7962704,7490002,7746327,66767543,10193061,7633144,9600518,11041927,12067226,12819555,13152444,13345519,13511964,13871484,14287595,14677075,15093186,15509298,15952040
+wage1,114320683,112017897,111270085,107376379,132211870,134189618,140763057,147839507,154870229,157088051,171298111,184639335,194882468,205765797,215940338,225097425,234791819,244509077,254283495,264309419,274495392,284807118,295381781,306299406,317605722,329369320
+wage2,261995646,261659142,253415638,247511878,302997965,307530489,322595239,338812769,354925502,360008217,392574276,423149168,446623978,471565963,494883576,515869427,538086658,560356288,582756915,605733934,629077746,652709753,676944350,701964934,727876304,754835656
+wage3,381259619,383184602,382875414,382789227,440926749,447522541,469444969,493044939,516492406,523888842,571279413,615772411,649933273,686229188,720161294,750700190,783031006,815438073,848035771,881472239,915442471,949832089,985098604,1021508897,1059215474,1098447088
+wage4,418567676,428313928,436140082,441282302,484073517,491314738,515382379,541291719,567033631,575153844,627181806,676028654,713532317,753379960,790632483,824159754,859654293,895232545,931020082,967728467,1005022847,1042777651,1081495161,1121468374,1162864717,1205935331
+wage5,418379915,424369612,426147995,437485582,483856372,491094344,515151189,541048906,566779271,574895841,626900465,675725401,713212241,753042009,790277821,823790053,859268669,894830962,930602445,967294363,1004572014,1042309882,1081010024,1120965306,1162343080,1205394373
+wage6,916618937,952347137,962308451,1000500360,1060069801,1075927308,1128632897,1185371609,1241743674,1259526081,1373461815,1480431245,1562560302,1649822425,1731401510,1804822687,1882551973,1960464582,2038835502,2119222982,2200893730,2283572758,2368360009,2455897118,2546550731,2640870819
+wage7,840581301,835434509,852517230,870406373,972132275,986674331,1035007756,1087039738,1138735488,1155042766,1259527021,1357622859,1432938944,1512962284,1587774019,1655104582,1726385876,1797835287,1869704988,1943423968,2018319762,2094140195,2171893966,2252169480,2335302970,2421798786
+wage8,3433224075,3714896131,3792750634,4090211841,3970523643,4029918419,4227328804,4439845374,4650988654,4717593201,5144342954,5545000204,5852617081,6179460013,6485016955,6760018204,7051155605,7342979652,7636520310,7937614061,8243514326,8553191138,8870764365,9198637264,9538183125,9891461882
diff --git a/cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz b/cps_stage2/cps_weights.csv.gz
diff --git a/cps_stage2/solver.jl b/cps_stage2/solver.jl
@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ function Solve_func(year, tol)
 
 end
 
-year_list = [x for x in 2014:2035]
+year_list = [x for x in 2014:2036]
 tol = 0.70
 
 # Run solver function for all years and tolerances (in order)

diff --git a/cps_stage2/stage2.py b/cps_stage2/stage2.py
@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
 STAGE_1_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "puf_stage1", "Stage_I_factors.csv")
 STAGE_2_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "cps_stage1", "stage_2_targets.csv")
 START_YEAR = 2014
-END_YEAR = 2035
+END_YEAR = 2036
 
 # Read hashes used to see which years can be skipped
 with open(Path(CUR_PATH, "..", "datahashes.json")) as f:

diff --git a/createcps.py b/createcps.py
@@ -2,7 +2,6 @@
 from taxdata import cps
 from pathlib import Path
 
-
 CUR_PATH = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
 DATA_PATH = Path(CUR_PATH, "data")
 

diff --git a/data/cps.csv.gz b/data/cps.csv.gz
diff --git a/docs/book/content/methods/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md b/docs/book/content/methods/CBO_Baseline_Updating_Instructions.md
@@ -47,9 +47,9 @@ As previously mentioned, most of the variables we used can be found in the
 To manually update these variables download the latest file and copy/paste the 
 specific variables.
 
-Previous Document: February 2023
+Previous Document: January 2025
 
-Current Document: January 2025
+Current Document: February 2026
 
 | Variable | Name In CBO Document                                |
 |----------|-----------------------------------------------------|
@@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ Source: [Revenue Projections, By Category (CBO)](https://www.cbo.gov/about/produ
 
 Previous: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx)
 
-Current: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51138-2025-01-Revenue-Projections.xlsx)
+Current: [February 2026](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51138-2026-02-Revenue.xlsx)
 
 In the revenue projections file, the data is in the `Capital Gains Realizations`
 tab under the `Capital Gains Realizations` column.
@@ -83,7 +83,7 @@ Source: [IRS Publication 6187 Table 1B](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/projectio
 
 Previous: [Fall 2022 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22projpub6187tables.xlsx)
 
-Current: [Publication 6187 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/24projpub6187tables.xlsx)
+Current: [Publication 6187 Report](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/25projpub6187tables.xlsx)
 
 The projections in the publication typically end a few years before the
 10-year projections do. We use the growth rate from the final year in the
@@ -96,16 +96,19 @@ Source: [OASI Trust Fund Annual Trustees Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/)
 Table VI.C4. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Table VI.C4, Column:
 `Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level`
 
-Previous: [2023 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2023/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
+Previous: [2024 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
 
-Current: [2024 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2024/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
+Current: [2025 Report](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2025/VI_C_SRfyproj.html)
 
 Projections are taken directly from the `Scheduled Benefits: Intermediate Level`
 column of this table.
 
 ### CPIM (CPI Medical Care)
 
-Source: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth)
+Previous: [BLS Database](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAM?output_view=pct_1mth)
+
+Current: [CBO Economic Projections](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51135-2026-02-Economic-Projections.xlsx)
+
 
 Series ID: CUSR0000SAM
 Access Date: 
@@ -120,13 +123,15 @@ Manual Instructions:
 6. Find the average difference between CPI-U from the CBO 10-Year projections
 7. Add this average difference to the CBO CPI-U projections
 
+NOTE: The latest CBO Economic Projections contain forecasts for the CPI-U Medical Care. This is now used in CBO_baseline.csv for CPIM 
+
 ### UCOMP
 
 Source: [CBO Unemployment Compensation projections](https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs#24)
 
 Previous: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51316-2025-01-unemployment.xlsx)
 
-Current: [January 2025](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51316-2025-01-unemployment.xlsx)
+Current: [February 2026](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51316-2026-02-unemployment.xlsx)
 
 Note: Change the `Total Benefits` number from the table to be in terms of
 billions rather than millions of dollars

diff --git a/environment.yml b/environment.yml
@@ -26,4 +26,4 @@ dependencies:
   - requests-html
   - black
   - taxcalc>=5.3.0
-  - jupyter-book>=0.9.1
+  - jupyter-book<2.0.0