The Gamble of the First Basket: A Study on Betting the First Scorer in NBA Games

This study aimed to analyze the viability of placing bets on the first player to score in a basketball game by examining multiple strategies. The motivation behind this focus is the perceived increased randomness in betting on the first scorer compared to conventional money-line wagers. Given the limited access to only five games of historical data, the research approximated casino odds using a function that classified players by position and recent scoring performance. This methodology was refined by optimizing player odds within a set range, mirroring typical casino measures. Notably, the broad categorization by the NBA of players into three categories posed challenges in truly discerning player capabilities, as evidenced by disparities between our derived odds and actual casino odds. Two key insights emerged: the significant fees imposed by casinos and the sophisticated models they employ, which often surpass the depth of freely available NBA statistics. While the research sought to exploit betting inefficiencies, it underscored the complexities inherent in replicating casino odds using public domain data. Further collaboration and access to richer datasets are encouraged for future endeavors.

Full paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4540820