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Economic vs mathematical arbitrage; domain-of-validity evaluation status #31

Description

@marwinsteiner

Context

The diagnostics report mathematical evidence (min density, Lee slopes, calendar margins). Missing is the economic layer: a tiny violation in an untradeable wing is not an executable arbitrage, and a mathematically clean surface can sit far outside every bid/ask. SVI also happily evaluates at K=1e-9 with no signal that this is pure extrapolation.

Proposal

  • Classify findings: mathematical arbitrage vs quote-consistent (violation within bid/ask uncertainty) vs executable (constructible static portfolio from quoted, crossed prices) vs extrapolation risk (violation outside the quoted domain)
  • Domain-of-validity metadata on evaluation: every slice records its quoted range; surface.iv(..., return_status=True) labels results observed / interpolated / extrapolated
  • Reports show the classification alongside the existing numerical evidence

Acceptance criteria

  • Wing-violation fixture outside the quoted range classified as extrapolation risk, not executable arbitrage
  • Crossed-quotes fixture classified as executable
  • Evaluation status labels covered by tests

Activity

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